Guingamp vs Nantes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.00 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Guingamp the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guingamp win

51.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guingamp home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nantes away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Guingamp win51%

Draw25%

Nantes win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score50%

Correct score

1–011.9%
1–111.9%
2–09.5%
2–19.5%
0–07.4%

Recent form

Guingamp

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Nancy · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-02T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Le Mans · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs RED Star FC 93 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Annecy · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Reims · 2-2 (D)

Nantes

2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Boulogne · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sochaux · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-07T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Nancy · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Guingamp · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rodez · 2-5 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 3-3 Nantes (Ligue 2)
2025-07-19T15:30:00.000Z · Guingamp 2-1 Nantes (Friendlies Clubs)
2022-07-13T00:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 1-0 Nantes (Friendlies Clubs)
2021-07-14T15:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 0-1 Nantes (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-03-03T14:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 0-0 Nantes (Ligue 1)
2018-11-04T14:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 0-5 Nantes (Ligue 1)
2018-01-27T19:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 0-3 Nantes (Ligue 1)
2017-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 1-2 Nantes (Ligue 1)
2017-05-14T19:00:00.000Z · Guingamp 1-4 Nantes (Ligue 1)

Ligue 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Saint Etienne	8	6	1	1	13	19
2	RED Star FC 93	8	5	2	1	3	17
3	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	3	15
4	Reims	8	3	5	0	6	14
5	Nancy	8	4	1	3	2	13
6	Annecy	8	4	1	3	1	13
7	Dijon	8	3	3	2	2	12
8	PAU	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	Sochaux	8	2	5	1	-1	11
10	Metz	8	2	4	2	1	10
11	Guingamp	8	2	2	4	-3	8
12	Dunkerque	8	2	2	4	-3	8
13	Nantes	8	2	2	4	-4	8
14	Grenoble	8	2	2	4	-5	8
15	Rodez	8	2	1	5	-4	7
16	Boulogne	8	0	6	2	-2	6
17	Clermont Foot	8	0	6	2	-3	6
18	Laval	8	1	2	5	-7	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guingamp win, at 51.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.