· Analysis updated 10:48 UTC
Guiseley AFC vs Bamber Bridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.60 expected goals for Guiseley AFC and 1.33 for Bamber Bridge, a combined total of 3.93. That distribution gives Guiseley AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guiseley AFC win
64.7% probability
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guiseley AFC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bamber Bridge away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.8%
- 3–17.7%
- 1–16.8%
- 2–06.6%
- 2–25.9%
Recent form
Guiseley AFC
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stockton Town · 2-1 (W)
Bamber Bridge
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stockton Town · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Alfreton Town · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trafford · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 4-2 Bamber Bridge (FA Trophy)
- 2026-02-03T19:45:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 0-2 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 0-2 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2025-01-01T15:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 3-1 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-10-05T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 0-1 Bamber Bridge (FA Trophy)
- 2024-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 3-2 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-01-13T15:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 2-0 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2023-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 2-0 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2023-01-02T15:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 1-2 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2022-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 0-1 Bamber Bridge (Non League Premier - Northern)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guiseley AFC win, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.