· Analysis updated 07:49 UTC
Guiseley AFC vs Stocksbridge Park Steels Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for Guiseley AFC and 0.95 for Stocksbridge Park Steels, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Guiseley AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guiseley AFC win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
2.14 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guiseley AFC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stocksbridge Park Steels away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guiseley AFC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for Guiseley AFC and 0.95 for Stocksbridge Park Steels, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–19.3%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Guiseley AFC
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stockton Town · 2-1 (W)
Stocksbridge Park Steels
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Athletic · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Runcorn Linnets · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-17T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lancaster City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ilkeston Town · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guiseley AFC win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.