· Analysis updated 07:50 UTC
Guiseley AFC vs Stockton Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Guiseley AFC and 1.30 for Stockton Town, a combined total of 3.72. That distribution gives Guiseley AFC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guiseley AFC win
62.1% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guiseley AFC home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stockton Town away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.2%
- 1–17.6%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–26.0%
Recent form
Guiseley AFC
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Alfreton Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hebburn Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Quorn · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stockton Town · 2-1 (W)
Stockton Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rylands · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Guiseley AFC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-25T18:45:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 3-0 Stockton Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2026-01-24T15:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 1-1 Stockton Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2025-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 0-2 Stockton Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2025-04-29T18:45:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 0-1 Stockton Town (Non League Premier - Northern - Play-offs)
- 2024-12-21T15:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 1-1 Stockton Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 1-3 Stockton Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2019-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Guiseley AFC 1-0 Stockton Town (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guiseley AFC win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.