· Analysis updated 09:25 UTC
Gulf United vs Al Urooba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Gulf United and 1.40 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Al Urooba the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Al Urooba win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gulf United home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Al Urooba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Al Urooba to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 26% / 27% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Gulf United and 1.40 for Al Urooba, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
74%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.3%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–09.1%
Recent form
Gulf United
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Al Jazira Al Hamra · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Ittifaq · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T15:05:00.000Z · H vs Al Thaid · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:05:00.000Z · A vs Dibba Al-Fujairah · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-05-29T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Ittifaq · 0-1 (L)
Al Urooba
- 2026-10-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-28T14:40:00.000Z · A vs Ittifaq · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Dubai City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T14:40:00.000Z · H vs Emirates Club · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T14:55:00.000Z · A vs Al Arabi · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-23T14:10:00.000Z · Gulf United 0-1 Al Urooba (Division 1)
- 2026-01-30T13:10:00.000Z · Gulf United 0-2 Al Urooba (Division 1)
- 2024-04-27T13:55:00.000Z · Gulf United 1-2 Al Urooba (Division 1)
- 2023-12-16T12:45:00.000Z · Gulf United 1-2 Al Urooba (Division 1)
Division 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Al Arabi | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 2 | Dibba Al-Fujairah | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Emirates Club | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 4 | Forte Virtus | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Al Hamriyah | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 6 | Al Thaid | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Al Urooba | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Al Fujairah SC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Palm City | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 10 | Dibba Al Hisn | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 11 | Al Bataeh | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 12 | Gulf United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Al Jazira Al Hamra | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -9 | 6 |
| 14 | Ittifaq | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 15 | Dubai City | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -10 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Al Urooba win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.