· Analysis updated 15:54 UTC
Guria vs Aragvi Dusheti Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.18 expected goals for Guria and 0.91 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined total of 3.09. That distribution gives Guria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guria win
66.3% probability
Expected goals
2.18 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guria home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Aragvi Dusheti away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 19% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.18 goals for Guria and 0.91 for Aragvi Dusheti, a combined 3.09 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.8%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 3–07.9%
Recent form
Guria
- 2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 0-1 (L)
Aragvi Dusheti
- 2026-10-10T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Telavi · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sioni · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Odishi 1919 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Martvili · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Shturmi · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guria win, at 66.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.