Guria vs Dinamo Tbilisi II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.77 expected goals for Guria and 0.58 for Dinamo Tbilisi II, a combined total of 3.35. That distribution gives Guria the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Guria win

82.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.77 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Guria home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Tbilisi II away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guria to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 12% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.77 goals for Guria and 0.58 for Dinamo Tbilisi II, a combined 3.35 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Guria win83%

Draw12%

Dinamo Tbilisi II win5%

Double chance 1X

95%

Double chance 12

88%

Double chance X2

17%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals65%

Over 3.5 goals43%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

2–013.5%
3–012.4%
1–09.7%
4–08.6%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Guria

2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Merani Tbilisi · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 0-1 (L)

Dinamo Tbilisi II

2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Guria · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	24	17	4	3	56	55
2	Varketili	24	15	8	1	43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	11	10	3	18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	11	7	5	10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	11	5	7	12	38
6	Gonio	23	11	5	7	8	38
7	Irao	23	10	5	8	11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	9	8	7	4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	9	5	9	1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	8	7	8	1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	9	4	11	-9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	7	4	13	-15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	2	11	11	-16	17
14	Gardabani	24	4	4	16	-40	16
15	Betlemi	24	4	4	16	-48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	3	5	16	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Guria win, at 82.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.

A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.