Gute vs Kungsängen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Gute and 1.48 for Kungsängen, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Kungsängen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

66.6% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.30 – 1.48

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gute home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kungsängen away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Gute win33%

Draw25%

Kungsängen win41%

Double chance 1X

59%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

67%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score56%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–19.2%
1–28.8%
1–08.1%
2–17.8%

Recent form

Gute

2026-09-26T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Helges · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Enskede · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viggbyholms IK · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Franke · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 4-0 (W)

Kungsängen

2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sunnersta · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Franke · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Falu BS · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Enskede · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Korsnäs · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · Gute 4-1 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2026-06-13T13:00:00.000Z · Gute 1-1 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2025-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · Gute 0-1 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2025-06-14T13:00:00.000Z · Gute 1-2 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2024-10-19T12:00:00.000Z · Gute 5-0 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2024-06-15T13:00:00.000Z · Gute 2-1 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2023-07-29T13:45:00.000Z · Gute 0-0 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2023-04-10T11:00:00.000Z · Gute 0-1 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2022-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · Gute 0-2 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)
2022-04-30T13:00:00.000Z · Gute 2-0 Kungsängen (Division 2 - Norra Svealand)

Division 2 - Norra Svealand table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skiljebo	26	18	5	3	34	59
2	Enskede	26	17	4	5	19	55
3	Sunnersta	26	16	6	4	43	54
4	Angby	26	15	6	5	25	51
5	Falu BS	26	13	5	8	8	44
6	Täby	26	12	6	8	16	42
7	Franke	26	11	4	11	4	37
8	Gute	26	9	6	11	0	33
9	Bollstanäs	26	8	7	11	-4	31
10	Kungsängen	26	5	11	10	-9	26
11	Viggbyholms IK	26	7	4	15	-23	25
12	Lidingö	26	6	5	15	-27	23
13	Korsnäs	26	4	5	17	-36	17
14	Helges	26	2	4	20	-50	10

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.