· Analysis updated 22:31 UTC
Gute vs Lidingö Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Gute and 1.28 for Lidingö, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Gute the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Gute win
52.0% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gute home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lidingö away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Gute to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 22% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Gute and 1.28 for Lidingö, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
48%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–26.5%
Recent form
Gute
- 2026-09-26T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Helges · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Enskede · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Viggbyholms IK · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Franke · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Lidingö · 4-0 (W)
Lidingö
- 2026-10-03T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Bollstanäs · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sunnersta · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Korsnäs · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Helges · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Skiljebo · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division 2 - Norra Svealand table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Skiljebo | 26 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 59 |
| 2 | Enskede | 26 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 55 |
| 3 | Sunnersta | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 43 | 54 |
| 4 | Angby | 26 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 51 |
| 5 | Falu BS | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 44 |
| 6 | Täby | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 42 |
| 7 | Franke | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Gute | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 0 | 33 |
| 9 | Bollstanäs | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 31 |
| 10 | Kungsängen | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | -9 | 26 |
| 11 | Viggbyholms IK | 26 | 7 | 4 | 15 | -23 | 25 |
| 12 | Lidingö | 26 | 6 | 5 | 15 | -27 | 23 |
| 13 | Korsnäs | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -36 | 17 |
| 14 | Helges | 26 | 2 | 4 | 20 | -50 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Gute win, at 52.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.