Sir Vivian Richards Stadium · Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Guyana vs Bonaire Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.80 expected goals for Guyana and 1.08 for Bonaire, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Guyana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Guyana win
73.0% probability
Expected goals
2.80 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Guyana home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Guyana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.80 goals for Guyana and 1.08 for Bonaire, a combined 3.88 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 74% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–07.5%
- 1–16.2%
Recent form
Guyana
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cayman Islands · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Puerto Rico · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-30T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Belize · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Dominica · 2-0 (W)
- 2025-11-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Antigua and Barbuda · 4-1 (W)
Bonaire
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Belize | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Anguilla | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Aruba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | El Salvador | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Barbados | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Martinique | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Antigua and Barbuda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 | St. Lucia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Guyana win, at 73.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.