GVVV Veenendaal vs DVS 33 Ermelo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.14 expected goals for GVVV Veenendaal and 1.45 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined total of 3.59. That distribution gives GVVV Veenendaal the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

GVVV Veenendaal win

53.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

2.14 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

GVVV Veenendaal home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
DVS 33 Ermelo away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates GVVV Veenendaal to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 21% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.14 goals for GVVV Veenendaal and 1.45 for DVS 33 Ermelo, a combined 3.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

GVVV Veenendaal win53%

Draw21%

DVS 33 Ermelo win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals48%

Both teams to score68%

Correct score

2–19.2%
1–18.6%
2–26.6%
3–16.5%
2–06.3%

Recent form

GVVV Veenendaal

2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs RKAV Volendam · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs DVS 33 Ermelo · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kloetinge · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-05T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Quick Boys · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kozakken Boys · 2-3 (L)

DVS 33 Ermelo

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportlust '46 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs GVVV Veenendaal · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hollandia · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs TEC · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sparta Nijkerk · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-08T12:30:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 3-0 DVS 33 Ermelo (Friendlies Clubs)
2024-07-30T18:00:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 5-1 DVS 33 Ermelo (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 2-0 DVS 33 Ermelo (Derde Divisie)
2022-11-19T13:30:00.000Z · GVVV Veenendaal 3-2 DVS 33 Ermelo (Derde Divisie)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is GVVV Veenendaal win, at 53.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.