Gwangju FC vs FC Anyang Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.22 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.77 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.99. That distribution gives FC Anyang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Anyang win

50.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.22 – 1.77

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Gwangju FC home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Anyang away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Anyang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 26% / 23% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.22 goals for Gwangju FC and 1.77 for FC Anyang, a combined 2.99 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Gwangju FC win26%

Draw23%

FC Anyang win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

74%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–110.9%
1–29.6%
0–18.9%
0–27.9%
2–16.6%

Recent form

Gwangju FC

2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-5 (L)

FC Anyang

2026-10-24T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Jeonbuk Motors · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Pohang Steelers · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-10T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gwangju FC · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

K League 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Seoul	33	20	7	6	32	67
2	Ulsan Hyundai FC	33	15	6	12	5	51
3	Daejeon Citizen	33	13	10	10	12	49
4	Jeonbuk Motors	33	12	12	9	10	48
5	Gangwon FC	33	11	15	7	10	48
6	Incheon United	33	12	10	11	8	46
7	Jeju United FC	33	12	10	11	2	46
8	FC Anyang	33	10	13	10	-8	43
9	Pohang Steelers	33	11	9	13	-9	42
10	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	33	5	19	9	-8	34
11	Bucheon FC 1995	33	7	11	15	-15	32
12	Gwangju FC	33	3	12	18	-39	21

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Anyang win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.