Gwangju Football Stadium · Referee Jong-Hyeok Kim, South Korea · Analysis updated 11:33 UTC
Gwangju FC vs Incheon United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.95 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.63 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Incheon United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Incheon United win
53.2% probability
Expected goals
0.95 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gwangju FC home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Incheon United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Incheon United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 22% / 25% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.95 goals for Gwangju FC and 1.63 for Incheon United, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.4%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–210.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Gwangju FC
- 2026-09-20T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Jeonbuk Motors · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Anyang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Jeju United FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T10:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Seoul · 2-5 (L)
Incheon United
- 2026-10-09T07:30:00.000Z · H vs Pohang Steelers · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangwon FC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Daejeon Citizen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T07:30:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Hyundai FC · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-08T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Bucheon FC 1995 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 32 | 67 |
| 2 | Ulsan Hyundai FC | 33 | 15 | 6 | 12 | 5 | 51 |
| 3 | Daejeon Citizen | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 12 | 49 |
| 4 | Jeonbuk Motors | 33 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 48 |
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 33 | 11 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 48 |
| 6 | Incheon United | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 8 | 46 |
| 7 | Jeju United FC | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 2 | 46 |
| 8 | FC Anyang | 33 | 10 | 13 | 10 | -8 | 43 |
| 9 | Pohang Steelers | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | -9 | 42 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 5 | 19 | 9 | -8 | 34 |
| 11 | Bucheon FC 1995 | 33 | 7 | 11 | 15 | -15 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 33 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -39 | 21 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Incheon United win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.