Gyeongju Civic Stadium · Analysis updated 09:06 UTC
Gyeongju HNP vs Pocheon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gyeongju HNP and 1.49 for Pocheon, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Pocheon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Pocheon win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gyeongju HNP home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Pocheon away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Pocheon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 29% / 26% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for Gyeongju HNP and 1.49 for Pocheon, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–28.2%
Recent form
Gyeongju HNP
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-04T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangjin Citizen · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-20T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Changwon City · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Gangneung City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulsan Citizen · 2-1 (W)
Pocheon
- 2026-10-03T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Chuncheon · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Yangpyeong · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Yeoju Sejong · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Siheung Citizen · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mokpo City · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
K3 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siheung Citizen | 24 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 55 |
| 2 | Pocheon | 24 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 21 | 49 |
| 3 | Daejeon Korail | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 41 |
| 4 | Busan Transportation | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 40 |
| 5 | Gyeongju HNP | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 36 |
| 6 | Dangjin Citizen | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 34 |
| 7 | Chuncheon | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 33 |
| 8 | Gangneung City | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | -10 | 30 |
| 9 | Changwon City | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 29 |
| 10 | Ulsan Citizen | 24 | 8 | 4 | 12 | -3 | 28 |
| 11 | Yeoju Sejong | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | -4 | 28 |
| 12 | Mokpo City | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -14 | 25 |
| 13 | Yangpyeong | 24 | 4 | 8 | 12 | -16 | 20 |
| 14 | Jeonbuk Motors II | 24 | 1 | 7 | 16 | -29 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Pocheon win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.