Tony Bezzina Stadium · Referee A. Johnson · Analysis updated 07:52 UTC
Gzira United vs Mosta Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Gzira United and 1.60 for Mosta, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Mosta the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mosta win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.60
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Gzira United home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mosta away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
42%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.3%
- 0–212.2%
- 1–111.4%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.2%
Recent form
Gzira United
- 2026-10-25T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Birzebbuga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-22T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Hibernians · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamrun Spartans · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mosta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-1 (D)
Mosta
- 2026-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Valletta FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Floriana · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gzira United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Birzebbuga · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Sliema Wanderers · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-14T17:00:00.000Z · Gzira United 1-1 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2026-07-24T18:30:00.000Z · Gzira United 1-1 Mosta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-03-03T19:30:00.000Z · Gzira United 2-1 Mosta (FA Trophy)
- 2026-02-22T13:00:00.000Z · Gzira United 1-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2025-11-24T17:30:00.000Z · Gzira United 1-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2025-10-02T16:45:00.000Z · Gzira United 4-3 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2025-07-18T18:30:00.000Z · Gzira United 1-3 Mosta (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-01-04T18:00:00.000Z · Gzira United 0-1 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2024-08-29T18:15:00.000Z · Gzira United 2-0 Mosta (Premier League)
- 2024-03-17T15:15:00.000Z · Gzira United 2-1 Mosta (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Valletta FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 22 |
| 2 | Marsaxlokk | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 3 | Sliema Wanderers | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 17 |
| 4 | Floriana | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Hamrun Spartans | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Birkirkara | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Mosta | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 8 | Hibernians | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 9 | Balzan FC | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Zabbar St. Patrick | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Gzira United | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
| 12 | Birzebbuga | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mosta win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.