· Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
H&H Export vs Jalapa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for H&H Export and 1.06 for Jalapa, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives H&H Export the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.5% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
H&H Export home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jalapa away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates H&H Export to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for H&H Export and 1.06 for Jalapa, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–08.5%
Recent form
H&H Export
- 2026-09-10T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Diriangén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T21:00:00.000Z · H vs UNAN Managua · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Walter Ferretti · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Estelí · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-08-22T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Managua · 1-6 (L)
Jalapa
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs H&H Export · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Estelí · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Managua · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Walter Ferretti · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs San Marcos · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Managua | 13 | 11 | 2 | 0 | 28 | 35 |
| 2 | Diriangén | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 3 | UNAN Managua | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 24 |
| 4 | Real Estelí | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 5 | Walter Ferretti | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | H&H Export | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 17 |
| 7 | San Marcos | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -8 | 11 |
| 8 | Jalapa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -8 | 9 |
| 9 | Matagalpa | 12 | 3 | 0 | 9 | -22 | 9 |
| 10 | Rancho Santana | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.