· Analysis updated 07:35 UTC
Hønefoss vs Junkeren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.63 expected goals for Hønefoss and 1.20 for Junkeren, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Hønefoss the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hønefoss win
67.8% probability
Expected goals
2.63 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hønefoss home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Junkeren away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hønefoss to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 17% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.63 goals for Hønefoss and 1.20 for Junkeren, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–16.9%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Hønefoss
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs KFUM Oslo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tromsdalen Uil · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 3-2 (W)
Junkeren
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Grorud · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Trygg/Lade · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ull/Kisa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Skeid · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Division - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eidsvold | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 57 |
| 2 | Kjelsås | 24 | 17 | 2 | 5 | 22 | 53 |
| 3 | Levanger | 24 | 16 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 49 |
| 4 | Hønefoss | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 24 | 49 |
| 5 | Grorud | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | 20 | 46 |
| 6 | Stjørdals-Blink | 24 | 11 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 36 |
| 7 | Tromsdalen Uil | 24 | 11 | 2 | 11 | 1 | 35 |
| 8 | Lørenskog | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 34 |
| 9 | Junkeren | 24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 31 |
| 10 | Rana | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | -5 | 30 |
| 11 | Skeid | 24 | 7 | 2 | 15 | -15 | 23 |
| 12 | Follo | 24 | 4 | 5 | 15 | -21 | 17 |
| 13 | Ull/Kisa | 24 | 4 | 1 | 19 | -48 | 13 |
| 14 | Trygg/Lade | 24 | 2 | 4 | 18 | -30 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hønefoss win, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.