· Referee M. Holthe · Analysis updated 23:47 UTC
Hønefoss W vs Bodø / Glimt W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Hønefoss W and 1.28 for Bodø / Glimt W, a combined total of 3.97. That distribution gives Hønefoss W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hønefoss W win
67.5% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hønefoss W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bodø / Glimt W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.7%
- 3–17.9%
- 2–06.8%
- 1–16.5%
- 3–06.2%
Recent form
Hønefoss W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodø / Glimt W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Røa W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 0-1 (L)
Bodø / Glimt W
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Røa W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann W · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-01T15:30:00.000Z · A vs LSK Kvinner W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabæk W · 1-7 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-20T17:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 0-0 Bodø / Glimt W (Toppserien)
- 2025-11-02T11:30:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 3-2 Bodø / Glimt W (Toppserien)
- 2025-05-24T12:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 0-1 Bodø / Glimt W (Toppserien)
- 2025-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 2-1 Bodø / Glimt W (Toppserien)
- 2024-11-16T12:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 5-0 Bodø / Glimt W (1. Division Women)
- 2024-10-06T11:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 0-0 Bodø / Glimt W (1. Division Women)
- 2024-08-18T14:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 1-0 Bodø / Glimt W (1. Division Women)
- 2024-04-27T11:00:00.000Z · Hønefoss W 0-3 Bodø / Glimt W (1. Division Women)
Toppserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brann W | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortuna Ålesund W | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 50 |
| 3 | Rosenborg W | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Vålerenga W | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 38 |
| 5 | Lyn W | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 32 |
| 6 | Stabæk W | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Haugesund W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -16 | 24 |
| 8 | Hønefoss W | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -15 | 19 |
| 9 | Molde W | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 | Røa W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -19 | 17 |
| 11 | LSK Kvinner W | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -17 | 15 |
| 12 | Bodø / Glimt W | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | -61 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hønefoss W win, at 67.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.