· Referee A. Oberlauf · Analysis updated 17:52 UTC
Hønefoss W vs Fortuna Ålesund W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Hønefoss W and 2.43 for Fortuna Ålesund W, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Fortuna Ålesund W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Fortuna Ålesund W win
67.1% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hønefoss W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fortuna Ålesund W away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Fortuna Ålesund W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 15% / 18% / 67% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Hønefoss W and 2.43 for Fortuna Ålesund W, a combined 3.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
33%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.9%
- 1–17.9%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–17.3%
Recent form
Hønefoss W
- 2026-10-04T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Bodø / Glimt W · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Røa W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Ålesund W · 0-1 (L)
Fortuna Ålesund W
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde W · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Bodø / Glimt W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-31T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hønefoss W · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-22T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Haugesund W · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Lyn W · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Toppserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brann W | 20 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 49 | 51 |
| 2 | Fortuna Ålesund W | 20 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 50 |
| 3 | Rosenborg W | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 15 | 42 |
| 4 | Vålerenga W | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 38 |
| 5 | Lyn W | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 32 |
| 6 | Stabæk W | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 27 |
| 7 | Haugesund W | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -16 | 24 |
| 8 | Hønefoss W | 20 | 5 | 4 | 11 | -15 | 19 |
| 9 | Molde W | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -16 | 18 |
| 10 | Røa W | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | -19 | 17 |
| 11 | LSK Kvinner W | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | -17 | 15 |
| 12 | Bodø / Glimt W | 20 | 1 | 3 | 16 | -61 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Fortuna Ålesund W win, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.