· Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
H&W Welders vs Dergview Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.04 expected goals for H&W Welders and 1.18 for Dergview, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives H&W Welders the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
H&W Welders win
57.3% probability
Expected goals
2.04 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
H&W Welders home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates H&W Welders to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.04 goals for H&W Welders and 1.18 for Dergview, a combined 3.22 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
H&W Welders
- 2026-09-25T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Newry City AFC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballinamallard United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dundela · 2-0 (W)
Dergview
- 2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballyclare Comrades · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-23T18:45:43.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-09T18:45:00.000Z · H&W Welders 3-0 Dergview (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-07-10T18:45:00.000Z · H&W Welders 3-1 Dergview (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-16T18:45:00.000Z · H&W Welders 2-0 Dergview (Championship)
- 2024-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · H&W Welders 5-0 Dergview (Championship)
- 2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · H&W Welders 2-3 Dergview (Championship)
- 2023-04-08T14:00:00.000Z · H&W Welders 0-2 Dergview (Championship)
- 2023-01-28T15:00:00.000Z · H&W Welders 3-0 Dergview (Championship)
- 2022-12-20T19:45:00.000Z · H&W Welders 3-2 Dergview (Championship)
- 2022-12-03T15:00:00.000Z · H&W Welders 3-2 Dergview (Championship)
- 2022-04-16T14:00:00.000Z · H&W Welders 2-2 Dergview (Championship)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is H&W Welders win, at 57.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.