· Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
H2O Purepechas vs Lobos ULMX Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.13 expected goals for H2O Purepechas and 1.03 for Lobos ULMX, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives H2O Purepechas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.3% probability
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lobos ULMX away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates H2O Purepechas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 30% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.13 goals for H2O Purepechas and 1.03 for Lobos ULMX, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 36% and both teams to score at 43%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–111.9%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–17.6%
Recent form
H2O Purepechas
- 2026-10-04T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tigres de Alica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Los Cabos United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Zacatepec 1948 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordobés · 1-1 (D)
Lobos ULMX
- 2026-10-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Montañeses · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordobés · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs H2O Purepechas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Irapuato · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.