Hang Day Stadium · Analysis updated 13:13 UTC
Ha Noi vs Binh Duong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ha Noi and 0.88 for Binh Duong, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives Ha Noi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ha Noi win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ha Noi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Binh Duong away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ha Noi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 27% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Ha Noi and 0.88 for Binh Duong, a combined 2.30 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.3%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Ha Noi
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Da Nang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai · 1-3 (L)
Binh Duong
- 2026-08-23T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-19T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Long An · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-24T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Công An Nhân Dân | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Phu Dong | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Song Lam Nghe An | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 4 | Thanh Hóa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Nam Dinh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Ho Chi Minh | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 8 | Da Nang | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 9 | Viettel | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Hai Phong | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 13 | Ha Noi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ha Noi win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.