Hang Day Stadium · Analysis updated 17:51 UTC
Ha Noi vs Da Nang Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ha Noi and 1.56 for Da Nang, a combined total of 2.86. That distribution gives Da Nang the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
68.3% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ha Noi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Da Nang away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Da Nang to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 32% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.30 goals for Ha Noi and 1.56 for Da Nang, a combined 2.86 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.6%
- 1–29.1%
- 0–18.9%
- 2–17.5%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
Ha Noi
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Da Nang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai · 1-3 (L)
Da Nang
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Ha Noi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nam Dinh · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Thanh Hóa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Thanh Hóa · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.