Hang Day Stadium · Analysis updated 08:17 UTC
Ha Noi vs Phu Dong Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ha Noi and 3.25 for Phu Dong, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Phu Dong the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Phu Dong win
80.5% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ha Noi home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Phu Dong to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 8% / 12% / 81% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Ha Noi and 3.25 for Phu Dong, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 79% and both teams to score at 60%, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
20%
Double chance 12
89%
Double chance X2
92%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–38.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–27.5%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–46.6%
Recent form
Ha Noi
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Da Nang · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Công An Nhân Dân · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Bắc Ninh · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Da Nang · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Song Lam Nghe An · 1-4 (L)
Phu Dong
- 2026-06-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Viettel · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Thanh Hóa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Ho Chi Minh · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Phu Dong | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Ho Chi Minh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Da Nang | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Ha Noi | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 11 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Phu Dong win, at 80.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.