· Analysis updated 16:19 UTC
Habay-la-Neuve vs Flénu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Habay-la-Neuve and 1.23 for Flénu, a combined total of 3.37. That distribution gives Habay-la-Neuve the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Habay-la-Neuve win
58.0% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Habay-la-Neuve home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Habay-la-Neuve to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Habay-la-Neuve and 1.23 for Flénu, a combined 3.37 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 65% and both teams to score at 63%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.7%
- 1–19.1%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–07.4%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Habay-la-Neuve
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tubize · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Charleroi II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Olympic Charleroi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Flénu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Standard Liège II · 0-0 (D)
Flénu
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Onhaye · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RWDM · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Stade Verviers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ganshoren · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
First Amateur Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RWDM | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Rochefort | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 17 |
| 3 | Meux | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | Union Saint-Gilloise II | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Tubize | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 6 | Albert Quévy-Mons | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Standard Liège II | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 |
| 8 | Sporting Charleroi II | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Olympic Charleroi | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Onhaye | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 11 | Habay-la-Neuve | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 12 | Flénu | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Habay-la-Neuve win, at 58.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.