Hadamar vs Bayern Alzenau Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Hadamar and 1.45 for Bayern Alzenau, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Hadamar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hadamar win

48.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.45

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hadamar home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayern Alzenau away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hadamar to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Hadamar and 1.45 for Bayern Alzenau, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hadamar win49%

Draw22%

Bayern Alzenau win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals85%

Over 2.5 goals66%

Over 3.5 goals44%

Both teams to score65%

Correct score

1–19.6%
2–19.2%
1–26.9%
2–26.7%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Hadamar

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fernwald · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vfb Marburg · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs 1960 Hanau · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kassel 2 · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hünfelder SV · 0-2 (L)

Bayern Alzenau

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Unter-Flockenbach · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Darmstadt 98 II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Baunatal · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hadamar · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs 1960 Hanau · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · Hadamar 3-0 Bayern Alzenau (Oberliga - Hessen)
2023-03-04T14:00:00.000Z · Hadamar 3-4 Bayern Alzenau (Oberliga - Hessen)
2022-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · Hadamar 1-1 Bayern Alzenau (Oberliga - Hessen)

Oberliga - Hessen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Stadtallendorf	14	10	2	2	30	32
2	Unter-Flockenbach	14	9	2	3	12	29
3	Eddersheim	14	7	4	3	7	25
4	Friedberg	14	7	3	4	6	24
5	Hadamar	14	7	3	4	3	24
6	TuBa Pohlheim	14	7	2	5	0	23
7	Darmstadt 98 II	14	6	3	5	13	21
8	Vfb Marburg	14	6	3	5	1	21
9	Hünfelder SV	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	Fernwald	14	3	9	2	2	18
11	Kassel	14	5	3	6	-10	18
12	Rot-Weiß Walldorf	14	5	2	7	-8	17
13	Bayern Alzenau	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Baunatal	14	4	4	6	-5	16
15	1960 Hanau	14	3	4	7	-11	13
16	Hummetroth	14	3	3	8	-8	12
17	Kassel 2	14	3	3	8	-8	12
18	FC Gießen	14	2	3	9	-20	9

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hadamar win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.