· Analysis updated 18:41 UTC
Haguenau vs St Maur Lusitanos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Haguenau and 1.42 for St Maur Lusitanos, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives St Maur Lusitanos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
St Maur Lusitanos win
46.4% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haguenau home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
St Maur Lusitanos away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St Maur Lusitanos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 27% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Haguenau and 1.42 for St Maur Lusitanos, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.6%
- 0–112.5%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.9%
- 0–28.9%
Recent form
Haguenau
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Epinal · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Colombes 92 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Chantilly · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chambly Thelle FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-24T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Nancy · 0-5 (L)
St Maur Lusitanos
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haguenau · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Bastia-Borgo · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Colombes 92 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chambly Thelle FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Le Pays du Valois · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National 2 - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St Maur Lusitanos | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 2 | Chambly Thelle FC | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 3 | Creteil | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Racing Colombes 92 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| 5 | Furiani-Agliani | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 14 |
| 6 | Feignies-Aulnoye | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Biesheim | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Dieppe | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Le Pays du Valois | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 10 | Bastia-Borgo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Haguenau | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Montlouis | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 6 |
| 13 | Epinal | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Colmar | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 15 | St-Pryvé St-Hilaire | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 16 | Chantilly | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -15 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is St Maur Lusitanos win, at 46.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.