· Analysis updated 16:43 UTC
Hai Phong vs Công An Nhân Dân Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.15 expected goals for Hai Phong and 1.55 for Công An Nhân Dân, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Công An Nhân Dân the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Công An Nhân Dân win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.55
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hai Phong home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Công An Nhân Dân away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–28.1%
- 1–07.7%
Recent form
Hai Phong
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Than Quang Ninh · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoang Anh Gia Lai · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Phu Dong · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-07T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Nam Dinh · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-31T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Pho Hien · 1-3 (L)
Công An Nhân Dân
- 2026-10-22T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Thanh Hóa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Ha Noi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T12:15:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-08T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Home United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Bình Phước · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T11:00:00.000Z · Hai Phong 0-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-09-13T12:15:00.000Z · Hai Phong 1-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-06-22T10:00:00.000Z · Hai Phong 0-2 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2025-04-22T12:15:00.000Z · Hai Phong 1-3 Công An Nhân Dân (Cup)
- 2024-09-15T12:15:00.000Z · Hai Phong 1-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2024-06-20T12:15:00.000Z · Hai Phong 1-5 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2023-12-04T11:00:00.000Z · Hai Phong 3-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2023-07-29T12:15:00.000Z · Hai Phong 2-0 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2023-04-08T12:15:00.000Z · Hai Phong 1-1 Công An Nhân Dân (V.League 1)
- 2023-01-12T11:30:00.000Z · Hai Phong 0-0 Công An Nhân Dân (Friendlies Clubs)
V.League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Song Lam Nghe An | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 2 | Nam Dinh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Phu Dong | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Công An Nhân Dân | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Ho Chi Minh | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Thanh Hóa | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Hai Phong | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ha Noi | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 10 | Bắc Ninh | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Viettel | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 4 |
| 12 | Da Nang | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Hoang Anh Gia Lai | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
| 14 | Bình Phước | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Công An Nhân Dân win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.