Stade Walter Luzi · Referee J. Medjedovic · Analysis updated 03:04 UTC
Haiti W vs Australia W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Haiti W and 1.63 for Australia W, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Australia W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Australia W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Australia W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 36% / 24% / 41% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Haiti W and 1.63 for Australia W, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 60% and both teams to score at 62%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.7%
- 1–28.7%
- 2–18.0%
- 0–17.1%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Haiti W
- 2026-06-08T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Equatorial Guinea W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs New Zealand W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Dominican Republic W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-03-03T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Suriname W · 2-0 (W)
Australia W
- 2026-06-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Mexico W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-06T09:15:00.000Z · H vs Mexico W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-15T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Kenya W · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-04-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Malawi W · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-03-21T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan W · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.