· Analysis updated 00:10 UTC
Hajdúnánás vs Kisvárda II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hajdúnánás and 2.50 for Kisvárda II, a combined total of 3.75. That distribution gives Kisvárda II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Kisvárda II win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 2.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hajdúnánás home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Kisvárda II away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kisvárda II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 18% / 18% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Hajdúnánás and 2.50 for Kisvárda II, a combined 3.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.2%
- 1–37.7%
- 0–27.3%
- 1–17.3%
- 0–36.1%
Recent form
Hajdúnánás
- 2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Salgótarjáni BTC · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Mátészalka · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kisvárda II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Gödöllő · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Debrecen II · 2-5 (L)
Kisvárda II
- 2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Debrecen II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Nyiregyhaza II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Tarpa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Cigand SE · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
NB III - Northeast table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ózd Sajóvölgye | 13 | 11 | 0 | 2 | 31 | 33 |
| 2 | Cigand SE | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 25 | 32 |
| 3 | DEAC | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 26 |
| 4 | Debrecen II | 13 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 25 |
| 5 | Gödöllő | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 22 |
| 6 | Kisvárda II | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Mátészalka | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 20 |
| 8 | Diósgyőr II | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 19 |
| 9 | Tiszaújváros | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 10 | Füzesabony | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 | Eger | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 17 |
| 12 | Salgótarjáni BTC | 13 | 4 | 0 | 9 | -11 | 12 |
| 13 | Tiszafuredi VSE | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 10 |
| 14 | Hajdúnánás | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Tarpa | 13 | 3 | 0 | 10 | -20 | 9 |
| 16 | Nyiregyhaza II | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Kisvárda II win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.