· Referee P. Simani · Analysis updated 10:13 UTC
Haka vs PK-35 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Haka and 1.29 for PK-35, a combined total of 2.69. That distribution gives Haka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.29
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haka home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
PK-35 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Haka and 1.29 for PK-35, a combined 2.69 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–18.7%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Haka
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-2 (D)
PK-35
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Haka · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs JIPPO · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-04T16:00:00.000Z · H vs EIF · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.