· Referee M. Haapakoski · Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Haka vs SJK Akatemia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.54 expected goals for Haka and 0.75 for SJK Akatemia, a combined total of 3.29. That distribution gives Haka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haka win
76.0% probability
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haka home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
SJK Akatemia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 15% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.54 goals for Haka and 0.75 for SJK Akatemia, a combined 3.29 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
24%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.0%
- 3–010.1%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.6%
Recent form
Haka
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs PK-35 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Ilves · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Klubi-04 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 2-2 (D)
SJK Akatemia
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs PK-35 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kooteepee · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs EIF · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · H vs KäPa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs MP · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ykkösliiga table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haka win, at 76.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.