Haladás VSE vs Balatonalmádi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 4.22 expected goals for Haladás VSE and 0.72 for Balatonalmádi, a combined total of 4.94. That distribution gives Haladás VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 92%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 84% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 92% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Haladás VSE win

92.1% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

4.22 – 0.72

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Haladás VSE home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Balatonalmádi away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haladás VSE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 92%, against 92% / 5% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.22 goals for Haladás VSE and 0.72 for Balatonalmádi, a combined 4.94 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Haladás VSE win92%

Draw5%

Balatonalmádi win3%

Double chance 1X

98%

Double chance 12

95%

Double chance X2

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals93%

Over 2.5 goals84%

Over 3.5 goals70%

Both teams to score49%

Correct score

4–09.4%
3–08.9%
5–08.0%
4–16.8%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Haladás VSE

2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pápai Perutz · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zalaegerszegi TE II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárom · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs 1908 SZAC · 6-1 (W)

Balatonalmádi

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Király SZE · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-27T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sárisápi Bányász · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Sopron · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tatabánya · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

NB III - Northwest table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	11	8	2	1	22	26
2	Tatabánya	11	8	2	1	20	26
3	Haladás VSE	11	7	4	0	21	25
4	Sárisápi Bányász	11	6	2	3	1	20
5	SC Sopron	11	5	3	3	5	18
6	Bicskei	11	6	0	5	3	18
7	Puskás II	11	5	1	5	3	16
8	MTE 1904	11	4	4	3	3	16
9	Komárom	11	4	3	4	-2	15
10	Gyori ETO II	11	4	2	5	2	14
11	Veszprém	11	3	4	4	-3	13
12	Zalaegerszegi TE II	11	4	1	6	-3	13
13	Pápai Perutz	11	3	2	6	-12	11
14	Király SZE	11	1	4	6	-11	7
15	Balatonalmádi	11	1	2	8	-23	5
16	1908 SZAC	11	0	2	9	-26	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Haladás VSE win, at 92.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 84%.

A 92% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.