· Analysis updated 13:48 UTC
Haladás VSE vs Sárisápi Bányász Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Haladás VSE and 1.25 for Sárisápi Bányász, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Haladás VSE the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 79% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Haladás VSE win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Haladás VSE home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sárisápi Bányász away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Haladás VSE to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 15% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Haladás VSE and 1.25 for Sárisápi Bányász, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
87%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–06.4%
- 3–06.4%
- 4–16.0%
Recent form
Haladás VSE
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pápai Perutz · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Zalaegerszegi TE II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tiszafuredi VSE · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Komárom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs 1908 SZAC · 6-1 (W)
Sárisápi Bányász
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Veszprém · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Király SZE · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Balatonalmádi · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Puskás II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Sopron · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-12T15:30:00.000Z · Haladás VSE 2-1 Sárisápi Bányász (NB III - Northwest)
NB III - Northwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Haladás VSE | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | Dorogi FC | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 21 | 23 |
| 3 | Tatabánya | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 23 |
| 4 | Sárisápi Bányász | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 17 |
| 5 | MTE 1904 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 6 | SC Sopron | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Bicskei | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Komárom | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 9 | Gyori ETO II | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
| 10 | Puskás II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Zalaegerszegi TE II | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 13 |
| 12 | Pápai Perutz | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Veszprém | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 10 |
| 14 | Király SZE | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 15 | Balatonalmádi | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 16 | 1908 SZAC | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -25 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Haladás VSE win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 79%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.