· Analysis updated 07:12 UTC
Halesowen Town vs Stourbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Halesowen Town and 1.26 for Stourbridge, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives Halesowen Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.8% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.26
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Halesowen Town home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stourbridge away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–17.7%
- 1–27.4%
Recent form
Halesowen Town
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Evesham United · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Warwick · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hitchin Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Alvechurch · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 1-1 (D)
Stourbridge
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Loughborough University · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bury Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leighton Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Club Warwick · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-28T18:45:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 3-3 Stourbridge (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-03-07T15:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 0-3 Stourbridge (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 3-1 Stourbridge (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 3-1 Stourbridge (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-11-30T15:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 2-2 Stourbridge (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2024-01-06T15:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 1-0 Stourbridge (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2023-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 4-3 Stourbridge (Non League Premier - Southern Central)
- 2021-08-03T00:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 3-1 Stourbridge (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2015-10-31T15:00:00.000Z · Halesowen Town 1-2 Stourbridge (FA Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.