Hallescher FC vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for Hallescher FC and 1.44 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt, a combined total of 2.94. That distribution gives Hallescher FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hallescher FC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hallescher FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for Hallescher FC and 1.44 for FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt, a combined 2.94 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hallescher FC win39%

Draw25%

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

61%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.4%
2–18.6%
1–28.2%
1–07.9%
0–17.6%

Recent form

Hallescher FC

2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tasmania Berlin · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-0 (W)

FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotive Leipzig · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-19T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Erzgebirge Aue · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs RSV Eintracht · 5-0 (W)
2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Preussen · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nordost table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt	14	9	4	1	24	31
2	Chemnitzer FC	14	9	3	2	21	30
3	Hallescher FC	13	8	4	1	11	28
4	Altglienicke	14	8	3	3	9	27
5	FC Carl Zeiss Jena	14	8	2	4	11	26
6	BFC Dynamo	14	7	5	2	9	26
7	Erzgebirge Aue	14	7	3	4	5	24
8	Greifswalder FC	14	6	4	4	5	22
9	Magdeburg II	14	6	1	7	-1	19
10	FSV Zwickau	14	5	4	5	-5	19
11	Lokomotive Leipzig	13	4	5	4	0	17
12	SV Babelsberg 03	14	4	4	6	-8	16
13	BFC Preussen	14	2	5	7	-6	11
14	Tasmania Berlin	14	3	2	9	-18	11
15	BSG Chemie Leipzig	13	2	4	7	-7	10
16	Hertha BSC II	13	2	4	7	-13	10
17	RSV Eintracht	14	2	3	9	-17	9
18	Luckenwalde	14	2	0	12	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.