Leuna Chemie Stadion · Analysis updated 15:09 UTC
Hallescher FC vs Lokomotive Leipzig Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Hallescher FC and 1.23 for Lokomotive Leipzig, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Hallescher FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hallescher FC win
53.5% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hallescher FC home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotive Leipzig away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hallescher FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Hallescher FC and 1.23 for Lokomotive Leipzig, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–07.9%
- 1–26.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.2%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Away | 3.80 | 23.7% | 24.3% | 4.12 | +0.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.37 | 38.6% | 39.1% | 2.56 | +0.5 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.34 | 39.1% | 39.6% | 2.53 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.50 | 61.0% | 61.4% | 1.63 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.93 | 46.1% | 46.5% | 2.15 | +0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.14 | 78.0% | 77.8% | 1.29 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.5% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.17 | 76.0% | 75.7% | 1.32 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.67 | 53.9% | 53.5% | 1.87 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.35 | 39.0% | 38.6% | 2.59 | -0.4 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.49 | 61.4% | 60.9% | 1.64 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.50 | 60.9% | 60.4% | 1.66 | -0.5 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hallescher FC
- 2026-09-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs FSV Zwickau · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-02T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Tasmania Berlin · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hertha BSC II · 2-0 (W)
Lokomotive Leipzig
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Babelsberg 03 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Carl Zeiss Jena · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs BFC Dynamo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Greifswalder FC · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - Nordost table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Rot-Weiß Erfurt | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 24 | 31 |
| 2 | Chemnitzer FC | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 30 |
| 3 | Hallescher FC | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 28 |
| 4 | Altglienicke | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | FC Carl Zeiss Jena | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 26 |
| 6 | BFC Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 26 |
| 7 | Erzgebirge Aue | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 24 |
| 8 | Greifswalder FC | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 22 |
| 9 | Magdeburg II | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | FSV Zwickau | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 19 |
| 11 | Lokomotive Leipzig | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 12 | SV Babelsberg 03 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 16 |
| 13 | BFC Preussen | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | -6 | 11 |
| 14 | Tasmania Berlin | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
| 15 | BSG Chemie Leipzig | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -7 | 10 |
| 16 | Hertha BSC II | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -13 | 10 |
| 17 | RSV Eintracht | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -17 | 9 |
| 18 | Luckenwalde | 14 | 2 | 0 | 12 | -20 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hallescher FC win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.