Halmstad vs Malmo FF Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.35 for Malmo FF, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Malmo FF the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Malmo FF win

49.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.80 – 1.35

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Halmstad home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malmo FF away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Malmo FF to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 22% / 28% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.80 goals for Halmstad and 1.35 for Malmo FF, a combined 2.15 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Halmstad win22%

Draw28%

Malmo FF win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

78%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals63%

Over 2.5 goals36%

Over 3.5 goals17%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.7%
1–112.6%
0–011.6%
0–210.6%
1–09.3%

Recent form

Halmstad

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Osters IF · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T15:30:00.000Z · A vs IFK Goteborg · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Degerfors IF · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Kalmar FF · 1-0 (W)

Malmo FF

2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Nordsjaelland · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Vasteras SK FK · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Orgryte IS · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · H vs AIK Stockholm · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-31T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Sirius · 1-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Allsvenskan table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Sirius	23	17	3	3	25	54
2	Djurgardens IF	23	14	2	7	27	44
3	Hammarby FF	23	13	4	6	28	43
4	BK Hacken	23	10	9	4	12	39
5	IF Elfsborg	22	10	7	5	9	37
6	Vasteras SK FK	23	10	5	8	-2	35
7	IFK Goteborg	23	10	5	8	-9	35
8	Malmo FF	22	10	3	9	4	33
9	AIK Stockholm	23	9	6	8	-4	33
10	Gais	23	8	6	9	7	30
11	IF Brommapojkarna	23	8	6	9	-5	30
12	Mjallby AIF	23	5	8	10	-11	23
13	Degerfors IF	23	5	5	13	-15	20
14	Kalmar FF	22	5	4	13	-15	19
15	Orgryte IS	23	3	6	14	-27	15
16	Halmstad	22	3	5	14	-24	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Malmo FF win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.