Ham-Kam vs Aalesund Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.97 for Aalesund, a combined total of 4.05. That distribution gives Ham-Kam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

62.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.09 – 1.97

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ham-Kam home form
2 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Aalesund away threat
Scored in 7 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ham-Kam to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 21% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Ham-Kam and 1.97 for Aalesund, a combined 4.05 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ham-Kam win42%

Draw21%

Aalesund win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals91%

Over 2.5 goals77%

Over 3.5 goals58%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

2–17.4%
2–27.3%
1–17.1%
1–27.0%
3–15.2%

Recent form

Ham-Kam

2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Tromso · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kjelsås · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 1-5 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rosenborg · 0-4 (L)
2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Kristiansund BK · 2-2 (D)

Aalesund

2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kristiansund BK · 4-1 (W)
2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Molde · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-16T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Førde · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs KFUM Oslo · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Eliteserien table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Viking	23	18	2	3	37	56
2	Bodo/Glimt	24	18	2	4	37	56
3	Molde	23	12	4	7	17	40
4	Rosenborg	24	12	4	8	15	40
5	Tromso	23	11	7	5	11	40
6	Lillestrom	23	11	3	9	1	36
7	Brann	23	9	2	12	3	29
8	Valerenga	24	8	5	11	-7	29
9	Fredrikstad	23	8	5	10	-8	29
10	KFUM Oslo	23	8	5	10	-9	29
11	Sarpsborg 08 FF	23	7	7	9	-6	28
12	Ham-Kam	24	7	5	12	-18	26
13	Sandefjord	23	6	6	11	-8	24
14	Aalesund	23	5	9	9	-12	24
15	Kristiansund BK	23	5	4	14	-24	19
16	Start	23	4	4	15	-29	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 62.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.

A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.