Hamburger SV II vs St. Pauli II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Hamburger SV II and 2.28 for St. Pauli II, a combined total of 4.10. That distribution gives St. Pauli II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

St. Pauli II win

48.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 2.28

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hamburger SV II home form
0 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
St. Pauli II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates St. Pauli II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 32% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Hamburger SV II and 2.28 for St. Pauli II, a combined 4.10 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hamburger SV II win32%

Draw20%

St. Pauli II win49%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

69%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals78%

Over 3.5 goals59%

Both teams to score75%

Correct score

1–27.8%
2–27.1%
1–16.9%
2–16.3%
1–35.9%

Recent form

Hamburger SV II

2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlas Delmenhorst · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs HSC Hannover · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Weiche Flensburg · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SSV Jeddeloh · 3-1 (W)

St. Pauli II

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs HSC Hannover · 3-4 (L)
2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kickers Emden · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs SV Drochtersen/Assel · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-16T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Norderstedt · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Regionalliga - Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Weiche Flensburg	14	11	1	2	29	34
2	Hannover 96 II	15	10	3	2	15	33
3	SV Drochtersen/Assel	15	10	1	4	26	31
4	VfB Oldenburg	14	10	1	3	22	31
5	Phönix Lübeck	13	8	3	2	24	27
6	Schöningen	14	7	3	4	-2	24
7	Atlas Delmenhorst	13	5	4	4	-1	19
8	Kickers Emden	15	5	4	6	-5	19
9	VfB Lübeck	14	4	6	4	-3	18
10	HSC Hannover	15	4	5	6	-9	17
11	Werder Bremen II	14	4	3	7	-4	15
12	Eimsbütteler TV	14	4	3	7	-14	15
13	SSV Jeddeloh	15	4	2	9	-14	14
14	Eintracht Norderstedt	13	3	4	6	-8	13
15	Hamburger SV II	13	4	1	8	-9	13
16	Todesfelde	15	3	3	9	-25	12
17	St. Pauli II	13	3	1	9	-5	10
18	Bremer SV	13	2	2	9	-17	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is St. Pauli II win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.