· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Hamburger SV U19 vs BAK 07 U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.45 for BAK 07 U19, a combined total of 4.15. That distribution gives Hamburger SV U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hamburger SV U19 win
63.9% probability
Expected goals
2.70 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
BAK 07 U19 away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamburger SV U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.45 for BAK 07 U19, a combined 4.15 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 78% and both teams to score at 71%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–17.5%
- 1–16.2%
- 2–26.0%
- 2–05.8%
Recent form
Hamburger SV U19
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 2-0 (W)
BAK 07 U19
- 2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamburger SV U19 win, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.