· Analysis updated 09:34 UTC
Hamburger SV U19 vs Hansa Rostock U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.02 expected goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.72 for Hansa Rostock U19, a combined total of 4.74. That distribution gives Hamburger SV U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 85% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hamburger SV U19 win
64.0% probability
Expected goals
3.02 – 1.72
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hansa Rostock U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamburger SV U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 16% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.02 goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.72 for Hansa Rostock U19, a combined 4.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 85% and both teams to score at 78%, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–16.9%
- 2–16.9%
- 3–25.9%
- 2–25.9%
- 4–15.2%
Recent form
Hamburger SV U19
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 2-0 (W)
Hansa Rostock U19
- 2026-10-03T11:30:00.000Z · A vs St. Pauli U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli U19 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamburger SV U19 win, at 64.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 85%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.