· Analysis updated 19:35 UTC
Hamburger SV U19 vs Holstein Kiel U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.63 for Holstein Kiel U19, a combined total of 4.50. That distribution gives Hamburger SV U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 82% for over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Hamburger SV U19 win
63.4% probability
Expected goals
2.88 – 1.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamburger SV U19 home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Holstein Kiel U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamburger SV U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 63%, against 63% / 17% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.63 for Holstein Kiel U19, a combined 4.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
37%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.5%
- 3–17.1%
- 2–26.1%
- 3–25.8%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Hamburger SV U19
- 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli U19 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK 07 U19 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 3-0 (W)
Holstein Kiel U19
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Kaiserslautern U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Hamburger SV U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-08T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-01T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund U19 · 4-3 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamburger SV U19 win, at 63.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 76% and over 2.5 goals at 82%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.