Hamburger SV U19 vs Ulm U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.78 expected goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.50 for Ulm U19, a combined total of 4.28. That distribution gives Hamburger SV U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Hamburger SV U19 win

64.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.78 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hamburger SV U19 home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Ulm U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamburger SV U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 17% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.78 goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 1.50 for Ulm U19, a combined 4.28 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Hamburger SV U19 win64%

Draw17%

Ulm U19 win19%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

36%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals92%

Over 2.5 goals80%

Over 3.5 goals62%

Both teams to score73%

Correct score

2–18.0%
3–17.4%
2–26.0%
1–15.8%
3–25.6%

Recent form

Hamburger SV U19

2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Werder Bremen U19 · 0-4 (L)
2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Pauli U19 · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK 07 U19 · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 5-6 (L)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 3-0 (W)

Ulm U19

2026-10-25T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Heidenheim U19 · 0-7 (L)
2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandhausen U19 · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Stuttgarter K'rs U19 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Karlsruher SC U19 · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-03-14T10:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 0-2 Ulm U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
2026-02-07T10:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 3-0 Ulm U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Hamburger SV U19 win, at 64.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.