· Analysis updated 13:17 UTC
Hamburger SV U19 vs Werder Bremen U19 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 3.00 for Werder Bremen U19, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Werder Bremen U19 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Werder Bremen U19 win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Werder Bremen U19 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Werder Bremen U19 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 9% / 13% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Hamburger SV U19 and 3.00 for Werder Bremen U19, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
91%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–28.2%
- 0–38.2%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–46.2%
Recent form
Hamburger SV U19
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hannover 96 U19 · 5-6 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock U19 · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-08-29T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Wehen Wiesbaden U19 · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-08-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Holstein Kiel U19 · 2-0 (W)
Werder Bremen U19
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs St. Pauli U19 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T09:00:00.000Z · H vs BAK 07 U19 · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Hoffenheim U19 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Magdeburg U19 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Hamburger SV U19 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 3-1 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 2-1 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2025-08-10T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 4-2 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2024-02-06T17:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 1-0 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2023-08-13T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 5-1 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2023-04-01T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 5-2 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2022-10-01T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 3-2 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2021-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 2-4 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
- 2020-09-26T11:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV U19 1-1 Werder Bremen U19 (U19 Bundesliga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Werder Bremen U19 win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.