Volksparkstadion · Analysis updated 15:25 UTC
Hamburger SV vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 2.70 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 4.03. That distribution gives Bayer Leverkusen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Bayer Leverkusen win
66.5% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 2.70
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamburger SV home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bayer Leverkusen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
34%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.6%
- 1–37.8%
- 0–26.5%
- 1–16.4%
- 0–35.9%
Recent form
Hamburger SV
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-5 (L)
Bayer Leverkusen
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FSV Mainz 05 · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:30:00.000Z · H vs RB Leipzig · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Celje · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Augsburg · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Berlin · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2026-03-04T19:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2018-02-17T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2017-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2017-02-03T19:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2016-09-10T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-3 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2016-03-13T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2015-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2015-04-04T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-4 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
- 2014-11-01T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SC Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 13 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern München | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 11 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 6 | FC Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | VfB Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | Hamburger SV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | FC Schalke 04 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bayer Leverkusen win, at 66.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.