Hamburger SV vs Eintracht Frankfurt Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.56 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.23. That distribution gives Hamburger SV the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

63.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.56

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Hamburger SV home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Eintracht Frankfurt away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Hamburger SV win41%

Draw23%

Eintracht Frankfurt win36%

Double chance 1X

64%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score64%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–18.6%
1–28.0%
2–26.7%
1–06.6%

Recent form

Hamburger SV

2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs SC Paderborn 07 · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)

Eintracht Frankfurt

2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Dortmund · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-10T16:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Braunschweig · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Freiburg · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-02T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2025-12-20T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2018-05-05T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-3 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2017-12-12T19:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2017-03-18T17:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2016-10-21T18:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-3 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2016-02-19T19:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2015-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2015-02-28T17:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)
2014-09-28T15:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt (Bundesliga)

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.