· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Hamburger SV vs Everton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.65 for Everton, a combined total of 3.05. That distribution gives Everton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamburger SV home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Everton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Everton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 33% / 24% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Hamburger SV and 1.65 for Everton, a combined 3.05 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–17.8%
- 2–17.7%
- 1–06.6%
Recent form
Hamburger SV
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FSV Mainz 05 · 0-5 (L)
Everton
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hull City · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ipswich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Wolves · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchester United · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-01T15:00:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-2 Everton (Friendlies Clubs)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.