Volksparkstadion · Referee Tobias Reichel, Germany · Analysis updated 17:03 UTC
Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 1.20 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.30. That distribution gives FSV Mainz 05 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 40% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamburger SV home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FSV Mainz 05 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 0–010.0%
- 1–27.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.15 (model 53.4% vs market 44.2%, edge +9.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.15 | 44.2% | 53.4% | 1.87 | +9.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.55 | 61.1% | 61.7% | 1.62 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 71.2% | 71.7% | 1.39 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Home | 2.80 | 33.0% | 33.4% | 2.99 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.25 | 28.5% | 28.3% | 3.53 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.40 | 38.5% | 38.3% | 2.61 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.40 | 67.7% | 66.6% | 1.50 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 55.8% | 46.6% | 2.15 | -9.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Hamburger SV
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · H vs VfB Stuttgart · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs 1899 Hoffenheim · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · H vs FC Copenhagen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs 1. FC Köln · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T13:30:00.000Z · A vs RB Leipzig · 0-5 (L)
FSV Mainz 05
- 2026-10-17T13:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Schalke 04 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Bayer Leverkusen · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Waldhof Mannheim · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Frankfurt · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-5 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2026-02-20T19:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2025-10-05T15:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2018-03-03T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2017-10-14T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 2-3 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2017-05-07T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2016-12-17T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2016-04-30T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2015-12-05T14:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 1-3 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 2015-05-03T13:30:00.000Z · Hamburger SV 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 17 | 14 |
| 2 | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | SC Freiburg | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Bayer Leverkusen | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 13 |
| 5 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | SV Elversberg | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | RB Leipzig | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 9 |
| 10 | FC Augsburg | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Frankfurt | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | 1. FC Köln | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | VfB Stuttgart | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 17 | Union Berlin | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -12 | 5 |
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 40%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.