ZLX Stadium · Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
Hamilton Academical vs Airdrie United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.42 expected goals for Hamilton Academical and 0.45 for Airdrie United, a combined total of 2.87. That distribution gives Hamilton Academical the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hamilton Academical win
81.0% probability
Expected goals
2.42 – 0.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Hamilton Academical home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Airdrie United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hamilton Academical to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 14% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.42 goals for Hamilton Academical and 0.45 for Airdrie United, a combined 2.87 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
95%
Double chance 12
86%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–016.6%
- 1–013.7%
- 3–013.4%
- 4–08.1%
- 2–17.5%
Recent form
Hamilton Academical
- 2026-10-03T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Peterhead · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kilmarnock II · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cowdenbeath · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Queen of the South · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Spartans · 4-0 (W)
Airdrie United
- 2026-10-17T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hamilton Academical · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hearts U21 · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Kilbride · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Montrose · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Berwick Rangers · 7-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ross County | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 36 | 31 |
| 2 | Hamilton Academical | 11 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 31 |
| 3 | Montrose | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 19 |
| 4 | East Kilbride | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 18 |
| 5 | Airdrie United | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -9 | 13 |
| 6 | Queen of the South | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -21 | 13 |
| 7 | Alloa Athletic | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -2 | 12 |
| 8 | Peterhead | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -11 | 10 |
| 9 | East Fife | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 10 | Cove Rangers | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hamilton Academical win, at 81.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.